It seems like only yesterday that we were shocked by the news that artificial intelligence (AI) could do, well, just about anything. Think back to what you thought late November 2022 with OpenAI’s introduction of Chat GPT.

Since then, I have become familiar with the Gartner® Hype Cycle™ and how it can be applied to the introduction, development and maturation of AI and its impact on professional services agencies such as Vehr Communications. The result? My anxiety level over the impact of AI on our clients and our business, while high, feels a bit more under control.

So, where are we and where are we headed? First, a little background about the Gartner® Hype Cycle™ and its application to AI. You may also want to refer to this article published in August 2024 on BigDATAWire about the Gartner® Hype Cycle™ and AI.

More generally, the Hype Cycle can be applied to many innovations. It includes five “periods of evolution” for products or services. What follows is my interpretation, informed by articles referenced in this blog post, for how the Gartner® Hype Cycle™ applies to AI.

  1. Technology (Innovation) Trigger: This first period of the Hype Cycle includes heavy research, excitement and little commercial adoption. For AI generally, this could extend back decades, but for generative AI, this period was likely from about 2020 through late 2022 with the introduction of OpenAI’s Chat GPT.
  2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: This period is one of investment, a lot of public attention, much uncertainty and questionable scalability. Most experts would agree, I think, that this period has run from late 2022 through late 2025/early 2026.
  3. Trough of Disillusionment: A period of disappointment, technical challenges for providers, cost issues and demand for “proof-of-value.” We are either in this phase now or will soon enter it.
  4. Slope of Enlightenment: In this period, benefits will become clearer, broader adoption will occur and a transition to mainstream will occur. I expect this period to begin later in 2026 or soon thereafter. At least, this is what our company is anticipating.
  5. Plateau of Productivity: The value of AI will be tangible and adoption widespread in this period. The AI hype is over. It is seen as a new and reliable “tool” providing real-world benefits and measurable value.

At nearly three years since Chat GPT shook the world, most experts believe we are now somewhere within the “Trough of Disillusionment.” For us, this means we are learning how to use AI safely, ethically and affordably to benefit our clients and the services we provide.

At Vehr, we encourage the use of generative AI. We believe it can improve efficiency, inform strategy and inspire creative thinking. We also believe it will never be a replacement for human creativity, understanding, judgment and experience.

We expect the benefits of AI to start becoming clearer in 2026 when it begins to enter the “Slope of Enlightenment.” I also expect that next year the regular use of AI will start being “mainstreamed” by agencies like ours.

It feels to me that we are still a few years away from the “Plateau of Productivity.” I am certain, though, that if agencies have not started to figure out how to maximize the value of AI for our clients, they will eventually struggle and fail as business enterprises.

While people can squabble a bit with the timetable, the direction is clear. Ignoring the role of AI in the future of client service would be like abandoning social media in the early/mid 2000s. While the “AI-hype” might fade a bit in the coming years, the underlying transformation is as undeniable as it is unstoppable.

I like the comparison to social media in 2008. Yes, it has been transformational, in ways both good and bad. I am sure we will say the same about AI. To think, though, that we can survive as a strategic communications agency without applying AI to the benefit of our clients or within the operations of our own company is nonsensical.